If you are one of the Bitcoin bulls hoping that a wave of Fed rate cuts will launch the next big crypto rally, there is a problem you cannot ignore. The U.S. 10-year yield is not playing along. Despite growing Fed rate cut hopes, several actual rate cuts in 2025 and endless talk about easier monetary policy, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is still hovering around the 4% mark and has barely moved in recent weeks. That may not sound dramatic on the surface, but it has huge implications for risk assets, the U.S. dollar and, most importantly for you, the Bitcoin price.
For months, the dominant narrative in crypto has been simple: the Federal Reserve will cut rates, liquidity will return, the dollar will weaken, bond yields will fall and Bitcoin will surge as investors rush back into high-risk assets. Parts of that story have happened. The Fed has already cut rates more than once in 2025 and markets are pricing in another cut in December, with probabilities above 80%. But the key piece that Bitcoin bulls wanted most—a decisive breakdown in long-term bond yields—has not arrived.
Instead, the 10-year Treasury yield has drifted in a tight band near 4.0–4.1%, only slightly lower than a year ago and nowhere near the deep decline that would signal a full-blown shift into an easy-money environment. In other words, short-term policy rates are easing, but longer-term borrowing costs are still sending a more cautious message.
In this article, we will break down why the U.S. 10-year yield isn’t budging, what this means for Bitcoin bulls, how to interpret the mixed signals coming from the Fed, the bond market and the crypto market, and how you can adapt your strategy in a world where rate-cut headlines may not be enough to carry Bitcoin on their own.
Why Bitcoin bulls care about the U.S. 10-year yield
On the surface, the Bitcoin market and the U.S. Treasury market might look like two completely different worlds. One is a decentralized digital asset born on the internet; the other is the backbone of the global financial system. But in the current macro-driven environment, their paths are deeply connected.
Bond yields, discount rates and risk assets
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is often called the “risk-free rate” for the global economy. It forms the base of how investors value almost everything: stocks, real estate, startups and, increasingly, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
When the 10-year yield falls, the present value of future cash flows rises. In simple terms, lower yields make risky assets look more attractive, because investors are not getting paid as much to sit in safe government debt. That tends to push money toward growth stocks, emerging markets and speculative assets like Bitcoin.
When the 10-year yield rises or refuses to fall, the opposite happens. The hurdle rate for risky investments stays high, valuations become harder to justify and the overall appetite for leverage and speculation cools. For Bitcoin bulls, a stubbornly high 10-year yield is like a headwind that refuses to die down, even as the Fed trims short-term policy rates.
Bitcoin as a macro-sensitive asset
For much of its early life, Bitcoin traded as if it existed in its own separate universe, driven mostly by crypto-specific news, halving cycles and internal narratives. But over the last several years, its behavior has changed.
Now, Bitcoin trades more and more like a macro-sensitive risk asset. It tends to rise when global liquidity is abundant, real yields are low and investors feel confident enough to stretch for returns. It tends to struggle when real yields are high, the dollar is strong and the bond market is flashing caution. Research has even shown that Bitcoin’s performance is strongly tied to global liquidity measures and, at times, to the shape of the yield curve.
That is why the phrase “Attention Bitcoin bulls” is not just catchy—it’s a genuine warning. If you are betting on the next big crypto rally, you cannot just look at Fed headlines or the fed funds rate. You have to watch where the U.S. 10-year yield is going, because that is the deeper signal about how supportive—or unsupportive—the macro backdrop really is.
The U.S. 10-year yield isn’t budging: what’s happening?
At first glance, the yield story looks simple. The Fed has cut rates. Markets expect more cuts. Therefore, bond yields should be dropping and pushing money into Bitcoin. But that is not what the data shows.
Where the 10-year stands now
Recent data shows the U.S. 10-year yield trading just above 4%, around 4.04–4.1% at the start of December 2025. Over the past month, the yield moved only a few basis points lower and is only a fraction below where it stood a year ago. That is not a dramatic collapse; it is a gentle drift.
Historical charts put this in context. For most of the post-2010 era, 10-year yields spent long stretches well below 3%. Before the 2022–2023 inflation spike, many Bitcoin bulls had become used to a world of near-zero interest rates and constant liquidity injections. Today’s 4% yield is lower than the peaks above 5% seen during the inflation scare, but it is still a high level by recent standards. In other words, the bond market is saying: yes, conditions are easier than during the inflation panic, but no, this is not a return to the ultra-cheap money era. For Bitcoin, that “middle ground” matters a lot.
Why long-term yields can ignore Fed cuts
To understand why the 10-year yield is not budging even as the Fed signals more cuts, you need to remember that long-term yields are not controlled directly by the central bank. They reflect the market’s view of several things at once: The expected path of future short-term rates. The market’s inflation expectations. The term premium, which is the extra compensation investors demand for holding longer-term bonds instead of rolling short-term debt. The supply and demand for Treasuries, including foreign buyers and domestic investors.
Right now, several of those components are working against a big drop in the U.S. 10-year yield. Inflation has come down from its peak, but it is not completely conquered, so investors are wary of locking in very low yields for ten years. The U.S. government is issuing large amounts of debt, which adds supply into the market. And global central banks, including the Bank of Japan, are shifting away from ultra-loose policies, which changes how international investors allocate their bond portfolios.
The result is a kind of tug-of-war. On one side, Fed rate cut hopes pull yields lower. On the other, inflation risk, heavy issuance and shifts in global policy pull yields higher or keep them steady. For now, the latter forces are winning, which is why the U.S. 10-year yield isn’t budging very much.
Fed rate cut hopes vs. bond market reality
If you only watch headlines, it sounds like the Fed is already deep into an easing cycle. Several cuts have happened, more are expected and tools like the FedWatch probability tracker show high odds of another reduction in December 2025. So why is the bond market so stubborn?
What the Fed has actually done
Throughout 2025, the Federal Reserve has already cut its benchmark rate multiple times, bringing the fed funds rate down from its peak to the high-3% range. That is a meaningful shift from the 5%+ levels that were in place during the height of the inflation fight.
These cuts have mattered. Short-term borrowing costs for banks, corporations and households have eased. Yields on savings accounts and CDs are drifting lower. Certain rate-sensitive sectors, like housing and small business loans, have started to feel some relief.
But from the perspective of longer-term investors, this is still a cautious easing, not an emergency rescue. The Fed has not gone back to zero rates. It has not restarted quantitative easing. It is simply nudging policy toward neutral, trying to support growth without reigniting inflation.
The bond market’s message to Bitcoin bulls
The Treasury market is telling Bitcoin bulls something important: rate cuts alone are not a free pass to risk-on conditions. If the economy remains reasonably strong and inflation does not fully return to 2%, long-term yields can stay elevated even while short-term rates fall. That scenario is exactly what we are seeing: the 10-year yield hovering around 4%, an improvement from the peak but far from “cheap money.”
For Bitcoin, the implications are clear. A slow, shallow easing cycle, combined with sticky long-term yields, is less powerful than the explosive stimulus of 2020 or the emergency cuts of 2008. There may still be a positive effect on Bitcoin price over time, but it will compete with a world where cash and bonds still offer meaningful yields and where investors have real alternatives to crypto for generating returns.
What sticky 10-year yields mean for Bitcoin bulls
So what does all this mean in practice for Bitcoin bulls watching the U.S. 10-year yield refuse to break lower?
A stronger dollar and less tailwind for crypto
One of the big hopes for Bitcoin bulls is a weaker U.S. dollar. Historically, major Bitcoin bull runs have often lined up with periods when the U.S. dollar index is falling, global liquidity is rising and real yields are low or negative. If the 10-year yield stays near 4% and real yields remain positive, the dollar may not weaken as much as Bitcoin bulls expect.
A stable or strong dollar competes with Bitcoin, especially for global investors who benchmark returns in local currency terms. It also makes it more expensive for non-U.S. buyers to accumulate significant BTC positions. In that environment, Bitcoin can still rise, but it no longer has the pure “easy-money tailwind” that pushed it higher in past cycles.
A more selective risk-on environment
Sticky long-term yields also mean the market is becoming more selective. When money was almost free, investors could justify throwing capital at almost any high-risk asset: meme coins, unprofitable tech stocks, speculative NFTs.
With the U.S. 10-year yield holding around 4%, the bar is higher. Investors are more careful. They want clearer narratives, stronger balance sheets and more disciplined projects. For Bitcoin, this can be both a challenge and an opportunity.
On one hand, a tougher macro backdrop can limit short-term speculative excess. On the other hand, it may help Bitcoin stand out as the blue-chip asset of the crypto world—an established, highly liquid digital asset with limited supply, compared with thousands of weaker altcoins that may struggle in a tighter environment.
How Bitcoin bulls can adapt to a sticky-yield world
If you are a Bitcoin bull who was counting on rapid rate cuts and collapsing yields, the current reality might feel disappointing. But it does not mean the Bitcoin thesis is dead. It means you need to adjust your expectations and your strategy.
Stretching your time horizon
In a world where the 10-year yield isn’t budging, the next Bitcoin bull run may take longer to develop. Instead of expecting instant fireworks on every Fed announcement, Bitcoin bulls should think in terms of cycles and years, not days and weeks.
If you believe in the long-term case for Bitcoin—capped supply, growing institutional adoption, a place in the digital-asset allocation of large portfolios—then short-term noise in the Treasury market does not change that story. It just means the path might be bumpier and less directly tied to each rate-cut headline.
Watching macro signals, not just crypto charts
In this environment, Bitcoin bulls need to watch more than price charts and on-chain metrics. Macro signals matter. The trajectory of inflation, the behavior of real yields, moves in the U.S. 10-year Treasury, changes in the dollar index and developments in other major bond markets (like Japan and Europe) all feed into the liquidity conditions that ultimately influence Bitcoin demand. By understanding these signals, you can avoid getting blindsided when Bitcoin fails to rally after what looks like bullish news, or when a seemingly minor move in yields triggers a sharp move in crypto.
Being realistic about risk and drawdowns
Finally, sticky yields are a reminder that Bitcoin remains a high-risk asset. Even in an easing cycle, there will be drawdowns, volatility spikes and sudden sentiment shifts. Position sizing, diversification and clear time horizons are essential. Bitcoin bulls who treat BTC as a high-conviction, long-term slice of a broader portfolio—rather than an all-in bet on immediate rate-cut euphoria—are better positioned to ride out the ups and downs that come with a world where the U.S. 10-year yield is not cooperating with the simplest “rate cuts = moon” script.
Conclusion
The headline is simple but important: Attention Bitcoin bulls: the U.S. 10-year yield isn’t budging despite Fed rate cut hopes. The Federal Reserve has already begun cutting rates, and markets expect more easing to come. But the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is still sitting near 4%, barely lower than a year ago, and refusing to deliver the deep decline that would fully reset global financial conditions.
For Bitcoin bulls, this matters. The bond market is sending a cautious message about long-term inflation, debt supply and global risk that doesn’t fully align with simple “easy money is back” narratives. It means short-term rate cuts may help, but they are not yet recreating the ultra-loose environment that powered some of Bitcoin’s past parabolic moves.
That does not kill the Bitcoin story. It just complicates it. Bitcoin now lives in a world where it must compete with 4% Treasury yields, evolving regulation and a more selective investor base. Bulls who acknowledge this reality, lengthen their time horizons and integrate macro signals into their thinking will be in a stronger position than those who ignore the 10-year yield and hope that rate-cut headlines alone will carry the day. In the end, Bitcoin is still a powerful, disruptive asset—but it is not immune to gravity. And in today’s market, gravity looks a lot like a U.S. 10-year yield that simply refuses to fall.
FAQs
Q: Why does the U.S. 10-year yield matter so much for Bitcoin?
The U.S. 10-year yield is a key benchmark for global borrowing costs and the pricing of risk assets. When the 10-year yield is low, investors earn less from safe bonds and are more likely to seek higher returns in assets like stocks and Bitcoin. When the yield stays high or refuses to fall, safe assets remain attractive and the incentive to pile into speculative trades is weaker. That is why Bitcoin bulls watch the 10-year almost as closely as they watch Fed announcements.
Q: If the Fed is cutting rates, why isn’t the 10-year yield dropping more?
Fed rate cuts directly affect short-term interest rates, not long-term yields. The 10-year yield reflects expectations about future inflation, long-run policy, term premium and supply-demand dynamics in the bond market. Right now, factors such as ongoing inflation risk, heavy Treasury issuance and changing global central-bank policies are keeping long-term yields from falling sharply, even as the Fed trims its policy rate.
Q: Can Bitcoin still go up if the 10-year yield stays around 4%?
Yes, Bitcoin can still rise even if the 10-year yield remains near 4%. A stable but not extreme yield level does not eliminate demand for Bitcoin, especially among investors who see it as digital gold or a long-term store of value. However, sticky yields can slow down speculative surges and make rallies more dependent on crypto-specific factors—like halving cycles, adoption news and ETF flows—rather than purely on macro easing.
Q: What should Bitcoin bulls watch besides the 10-year yield and Fed cuts?
Bitcoin bulls should pay attention to real (inflation-adjusted) yields, the strength of the U.S. dollar, global liquidity indicators, ETF inflows and outflows, and on-chain metrics such as exchange balances and long-term holder behavior. Together, these signals provide a more complete picture of the macro environment that drives demand for Bitcoin and other risk assets.
Q: How can I adapt my Bitcoin strategy in this environment?
In a world where the U.S. 10-year yield isn’t budging, consider stretching your time horizon, avoiding overreliance on short-term rate-cut headlines and sizing positions conservatively. Treat Bitcoin as a long-term, high-volatility asset within a diversified portfolio, rather than a guaranteed lottery ticket tied to every Fed meeting. By combining macro awareness with disciplined risk management, Bitcoin bulls can stay in the game even when the bond market is not fully on their side.
